October 15, 2008

Business Surveys

I have been fortunate enough to get my hands on a number of surveys dedicated to downtown Newark and specifically the Lansing Building, which is the historic building that I am proposing to renovate into a mixed-use building consisting of office, business and residential uses. The purpose of going through the reports was to get a better idea of what had been looked at and if anything had been accomplished.

A market feasibility study was done for the Lansing building in July 2002, proposing 12 to 14 loft-style apartments in the upper stories which could be efficiency/ studios, two bedroom or three-bedroom units. The units could be either garden or townhouse arrangements. To make the units more marketable, the study recommended that the building be equipped with an elevator, both front and rear entries, laundry and community room. The goal of the developer was to market the units towards young professionals and empty-nesters who don’t want or need yards. Parking was to be either in the lower parking garage in the adjacent building behind and to the north, or on the street or an adjacent surface lot.

A couple of the key points the report makes in favor of the renovation is the proximity of a grocery, restaurants and hardware store nearby. The report also mentions that Columbus being 40 miles away and having a local mall that is less than two miles away, most of the needed goods or services are close by.

There are five major companies within three miles of the site that employ about 6,500 people. In the downtown area alone, there are four employers with approximately 1,200 people. Downtown area housing is limited to really three buildings, all geared toward government subsidized apartments. The Avalon, which was renovated after this report is located about three blocks away; the Candlewick Apartments, located about a block away; and the Licking County Metro Building, which is about three blocks away. There are a few non-subsidized apartments, but they are very sporadic. With the low amount of units available and the high number of people within the area, there is a good chance the units could be filled rather easily.

The distribution of available apartment units in the Newark area breaks down as follows:
· 31 percent studio with a vacancy rate of 2 percent
· 30.7 percent one-bedroom with a vacancy rate of 7.3 percent
· 50.5 percent two-bedroom with a vacancy rate of 6.7 percent
· 18.7 percent three-bedroom with a vacancy rate of 2.8 percent
· 0.1percent four-bedroom
Four-bedroom apartments have negligible vacancy because there are so few available.

According to the report, one can expect a median gross rent for units as follows:
· A studio is $299 with a median high rent of $550 to $579
· one-bedroom is $516 with a median high rent of $625 to $649
· two-bedroom is $625 with a median high rent of $725 to $749
· three-bedroom is $738. with a median high rent of $825 to $849

The only comparable projects that are located are at 3 West Church that rent for $500 to $600 a month and the 5 North Third which rents for $1,300 a month. Now when looking at this information, one has to realize that this report is five years old and a lot has changed in the area, especially with the economy dropping and new job loss in the area.

Before the Lansing report, there was a Downtown Market Analysis that was prepared and presented to the city by Main Street Connections that was done in July of 1999. What makes this report better than the usual rhetoric, was that they actually talked to merchants to get their view of what is wrong with the downtown and what could be done to fix things. The report also looked at the total number of storefronts on the Courthouse Square. At the time of the report there were 78 first-floor units available, which is about 30 percent of the total downtown commercial spaces. This is down from 71 percent in 1987. There were 15 vacant storefronts on the Square.

The market analysis started by talking to the local merchants and collected information from the merchants about them and their businesses. The typical merchant has been open for a median time of 16-1/2 years with about 10 percent having only been open less than a year. The majority of the businesses are run with minimal staffs, most having two full-time employees, one of which is the owner, and three part-time employees. Some have only one full-time employee.
Of the merchants interviewed, 23 percent owned their properties and 77 percent rented. Their stores averaged about 2,200 square feet with a retail area of 1,100 square feet. If renting space, one would expect to spend $2.50 to $8.00 per square foot with the average being $7.35 per square foot.

One of the biggest problems from the public perception followed along with the merchants’ thoughts that the store close too early. Most, if not all, stores close at 5:30 on weeknights, and are closed on Sunday. The only places open after 6:00 o’clock are the area restaurants and the Midland Theater if there is a performance.

Merchants also had a different perspective of customer mix. Fifty-five percent of the merchants thought their base was female, 5 percent male, and 45 percent a mix of both. The ages tended to be 21 to 64 by 63 percent, with 20 percent over age 65 and 11 percent under age 21. Many perceived their customers to be fairly affluent income group. The merchants tend to rely on the downtown workers for approximately 38 percent of their sales. They also reported that 25% of sales to other merchants.

Asking the merchants’ opinion is the best thing this report has done, especially with them being in the thick of things and can really understand where to look for strengths and weaknesses of the downtown. The merchants surveyed had some good ideas about what is great about the downtown. Among the strengths mentioned were the historic buildings, being the county seat, the green space around the courthouse, and merchant commitment to change and the huge potential for the upper stories for residential and new businesses, as well as some of the quality business that already exist. Now for all the strengths, there were just as many, if not more, weaknesses. At the top of the list is the problem with parking. Most feel as there isn’t enough and what there is it used up by county employees and juries that park on the street all day instead of using the parking garage, using the reason that the garage is unsafe and dirty.
Many would like to see more retail establishments as there are no drugstores with them all leaving back years ago. They would also like to see more clothing stores, restaurants, and a home goods store. The merchants also would like the businesses to stay open later.
They one area I agree with the merchants completely is the need for better building maintenance. Many buildings, whether vacant or occupied, are poorly maintained, which affects surrounding properties. Many merchants have felt that why should they put money into their building if their neighbor doesn’t which creates a negative atmosphere in the downtown area.
There is also a perception from the merchants that the local government is full of “good old boys” who have good intentions, but lack the experience and background to make a difference. Most are okay with the way things are and don’t want to do anything different.
Other comments included making the area more pedestrian friendly whether crossing the street or preventing loitering on the Square, and no real connection between the square businesses and businesses outside the Square, along with having no transit system in the downtown area.
Now with the merchants knowing the problems, many had some suggestions to make the downtown better. The most pressing is parking. Most feel that parking should be limited to two hours daily to stop government workers from parking all day and increasing the appearance and security of the parking garage, which would encourage more people to park there. Most solutions to improving the downtown concern the buildings themselves, whether it be fines for people who don’t maintain their existing properties, to encouraging the renovation of existing buildings.

The merchants also want the upper floors to be utilized for housing, feeling that that would be the best use for the space. If the upper floors were turned into Class A office space, it could be leased quite easily for $4.50 to $11.75 a square foot. Of the property owners who turned their upper floors into office use, many have been successful in attracting tenants.

When looking at commercial occupancy rates of the Courthouse Square for 1931 to 2001, you notice an upward trend in business, peaking in 1941 and slowly declining from then on according to the R. L. Directory. Newark went from 49 businesses on North Park Place and 37 on South Park Place in 1941 to 13 on North Park Place and 37 on South Park Place in 2001. The significant number here is the 37 businesses on South Park Place. This is due to the reinvestment of the upper stories of an existing building for office use, proving that if you build it, they will come.

Since the 1999 survey, there have been many more, but each one took the original information and put it out in a new survey. The names changed, but the results have been the same. Each starts out with great fanfare and excitement, then slowly fizzles out, at least until the next time. The problem as I see it is that the plans are too big and attempt to do everything at once, usually ending in failure. It’s not to say that no progress has been made, but it has been very limited.

During the last nine years I have seen two or three buildings get renovated, and only one of those is on the Square. The thing is there has been no real benefit to the area. The buildings may be cleaned up, but there isn’t much income coming into the area. I think that is due to the fact that there have been no new residential units created in years. This leaves a void of people that won’t be able to support the businesses. It’s interesting to read the surveys and talk to local officials and developers because each one of them points back to the very surveys that proposes some form for residential be developed because without people, the other pieces can’t fall into place. Many of the cities that have succeeded have created residential, knowing that the residents will need services and goods that will locate in the area when they see the need. I would equate this to the way in which surburbia has grown, the people come before the businesses, and when the businesses see the need for their goods and services they locate there. It is a simple supply and demand.

The survey and other research that I have done lead me to believe that the best way to approach this project is to create small steps that can be accomplished. I want to set goals that will be achieved and built upon to create a vibrant downtown.

October 06, 2008